The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is disrupting global hydrogen supply chains, affecting the production and trade of hydrogen-based products such as fertilisers, industrial feedstocks, and low-emissions fuels.
According to the latest Global Hydrogen Review, global hydrogen demand exceeded 100 million tonnes in 2025, while production of low-emissions hydrogen increased by 20% to nearly one million tonnes. Despite this progress, high production costs, uncertain demand, regulatory challenges, and limited infrastructure continue to slow the sector’s expansion.
The report highlights the Middle East’s strategic importance in global hydrogen markets. The region accounts for approximately one-sixth of global hydrogen production, supplying key products including ammonia, urea, methanol, and refined petroleum products. It also represents more than one-quarter of global ammonia trade, nearly 40% of urea exports, and around 45% of methanol trade.
Disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have interrupted exports and shipping routes, creating shortages and price volatility across international markets. The resulting increase in fertiliser prices has raised concerns over global food security, while countries in Asia have experienced additional pressure due to their reliance on Middle Eastern natural gas supplies for hydrogen production.
The IEA noted that the crisis has renewed interest in hydrogen as countries seek to strengthen energy security and diversify supply chains. However, investment momentum weakened during 2025 as numerous low-emissions hydrogen projects faced delays or cancellations. The agency estimates that the pipeline of planned low-emissions hydrogen projects for 2030 has declined by around 25%, with only a limited number expected to become operational.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the current crisis demonstrates the world’s dependence on hydrogen-related trade and emphasised that stronger policy support and faster project development will be required for low-emissions hydrogen to play a significant role in future energy systems.
